Mass Deportations Are Driving Up Consumer Prices and Stifling Growth

The report highlights that the administration’s focus on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids is creating an 'economy of fear' that disrupts entire supply chains. Rather than opening positions for native-born workers, the sudden removal of labor is forcing businesses to cut hours and production, directly impacting consumer prices. Data from June 2026 illustrates this inflationary pressure: while core inflation remained at 2.6%, sectors reliant on immigrant labor saw sharp spikes, including a 32.1% surge in the cost of lettuce and a 10.7% increase in home health care services.

Economic fallout extends beyond industry-specific costs. A Wharton School of Business working paper tracking 5,400 raids in 2025 found a 6.2% decline in weekly business spending in targeted areas. The Economic Policy Institute projects that if the current deportation target of 1 million people annually continues, the US could face a reduction of nearly 6 million employed workers by the end of the term, including 2.6 million US-born individuals. AFL-CIO president Liz Shuler noted that the current system destabilizes communities and facilitates worker exploitation, arguing that a pathway to citizenship would instead stabilize the workforce, boost GDP by an estimated $2 trillion over a decade, and prevent the wage suppression currently weaponized by employers.