California Billionaires Face Make-or-Break Vote on Proposition 40

Opposition to the measure is fierce and well-funded, with tech titans including Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and Max Levchin funneling millions into campaigns to defeat the proposal. Financial filings show committees opposing the tax raised $130 million by late October, dwarfing the $33 million collected by supporters. The stakes are personal for many: Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly explored restructuring his holdings to secure $20 billion in liquidity, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has publicly distanced himself from the panic, stating he is comfortable with whatever tax burden the state chooses to impose.

Should the measure pass, it would apply to approximately 200 individuals who were California residents as of January 1, 2026. However, the path to implementation is fraught with legal complexity. Two counter-measures, Propositions 41 and 42, serve as potential spoilers; if either receives more votes than the tax itself, they could effectively neutralize the legislation through new audit requirements and asset exemptions. While proponents argue the tax could generate over $100 billion to bolster healthcare and education, economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research suggest the revenue could fall significantly short—potentially totaling only $30 billion before triggering an exodus of high-net-worth taxpayers that costs the state nearly $39 billion in long-term losses.